You’ve just read the title of this article, and if you hate Liam MacKinnon‘s guts, you’re probably outraged.
“Here we go again; the media is kissing Moncton’s ass! Elliotte Friedman isn’t any different than Bob McKenzie. Bunch of corrupt journalists.”
Well, I’ve got news for you. I don’t make up the stats. I’m here to convey them to you and give you my analysis of the league’s current state.
Now that that’s out of the way, I’ll start.
After the first 8 weeks, the Moncton Acadians are off to a thunderous start (7-1-0) and are asserting themselves as top contenders this season. Will they keep up the pace? Who will pose the biggest threat to them? Will the recent additions made by Texas, Masham, Thurso and Valleyfield change the landscape of the league?
Let’s take a deep dive into the numbers to find out.
We will be comparing stats after week 8 (this report) and after week 4 (first report).
You will also find a GAIN or CHANGE column. This is what you’ve gained or how you’ve changed statistically since week 4. If you’re highlighted in green, you are performing above the league average in the last 4 weeks. Yellow is at or around the league average. Red is below average.
OFFENSIVE CATEGORIES:
Notes for offensive categories (G -A – P – PPP):
- Moncton continues to dominate the league offensively. They are #1 in all categories except assists where they trail by one (1), and have the biggest gains since week 4 in all four stats. Yes, Nathan MacKinnon and David Pastrnak have been amazing, but this team’s strength is its depth. Point, Svechnikov, Guentzel, Zibanejad, Forsberg, Marchessault have been key contributors this season and believe it or not, they are expecting even more offense with Gabriel Landeskog returning from injury.
- Gatineau and Masham continue to put up great offensive numbers. They are right up there with Moncton as the league’s top 3 offensive teams. For the next 4 weeks, I’m keeping an close eye on the because they’ve added multiple pieces in Anthony Mantha, Matt Tkachuk and Shea Weber. Gatineau, on the other hand, traded away superstar forward Artemi Panarin in a trade to acquire goaltender Fredrik Andersen and have made no rental acquisitions so far.
- In the first season report, Bob McKenzie pointed out that St-Hubert was a close second for offense and because of this, he had high hopes for this team at the time. Since then, they’ve unfortunately thrown in the towel and opted to blow the team up. They are still 4th in the GHL in pts but are starting to lose some ground, especially since trading away Matt Tkachuk and Anthony Mantha. Take away Teuvo Teravainen, Ryan O’Reilly and Kyle Connor as well and you’ve got virtually nothing else left. Expect this team to finish near the basement offensively.
- Compton somehow continues to score at a high pace. They are 2nd in the league behind Moncton. Combined with their poor performance in the assists category (9th), they have themselves a league average offense. Doesn’t matter anyway, because they too have given up.
- As expected, with Blake Wheeler and Brayden Schenn gone and Mitch Marner injured, the Colibris’ offense went cold. They had 120 pts in the last 4 weeks (30 pts/week), the lowest total in the GHL. To put things in perspective, the second worst team was Valleyfield with 140 pts in weeks 4 to 8. I knew winters were a little chilly in Saguenay, but damn, this is freezing cold!
- The Texas Gutters and the Thurso Raie are still below average when it comes to their offensive output. The Gutters improved slightly over the past four weeks but they did not gain any ground on Moncton, Gatineau or Masham. Thurso, on the other hand, was just below the league average with 146 pts in the last 4 weeks. After the first two months, it is now clear that both these teams have largely insufficient offensive capacities.
- Reactively, both the Gutters and the Raie made some moves to deal with these shortcomings. GM Jacob Chartré of the Gutters brought in former St-Hubert Jets forwards Kyle Connor and Teuvo Teravainen, while Thurso GM Nicolas Raie has fully loaded the team’s credit card, trading each and every one of their top picks to acquire Morgan Rielly, Evgeni Dadonov, Mike Hoffman and Ryan O’Reilly. Not to mention Blake Wheeler, who was acquired early in the season for a 1st round pick. With this influx of rental players, look for both teams to get a much-needed boost in their offensive numbers when we look at the data again in a month.
- After the first four weeks, the Nepean Napalm and the Valleyfield Roteux were the league’s bottomfeeders in terms of offensive production. Nothing has changed here after week 8 as both teams continue to get torched in the offensive categories. GM Chip Monette will tell you that he’s been hurt by the injury bug (Rantanen, Tavares, Drouin, Letang, et al.), and he’s right, but at the end of the day it is hard to envision this team joining the league’s top offensive units, even with the recent rental additions of Elias Lindholm and Tom Wilson. Failing to reach 300 pts by the end of Week 8 is just dreadful and it’s an unacceptable result for a playoff-calibre team.
SHOOTING STATS (after Week 4):
Notes:
- Shot totals are revealing in many ways. If you see high shot totals but low goal scoring, it suggests the team deserves a better fate. On the flip side, if you see low shot totals and high goal scoring, it is a sign the team is over-performing and is likely to slow down in the near future. The ideal outcome for a team is to be at or around the league average shooting %.
- It was pointed out in week 4 that the Compton Rough Riders had an unsustainable shooting percentage (14.18%). Turns out that was correct, as they’ve dropped to 12.12% which is still the highest in the GHL and is 1.5 percentage point above the league average. Expect that number to continue dipping, but again, Compton’s statistical performance is of little to no importance to us as they’ve already given up on their season.
- Moncton and Masham’s shooting percentages are a full percentage point above the league average. You may see their goal shares drop slightly in these next few weeks.
- Thurso and Nepean are snakebitten. Expect these two teams to start scoring more.
HITS & BLOCKS (After Week 4):
Notes:
- Valleyfield has a commanding lead for HITS. It’s been that way for the whole season and will be very difficult for other teams to outperform them in this category.
- Texas continues to lead the league in BLKS. Similarly to Valleyfield’s hits, it will be tough to beat out the Gutters in blocks.
- Moncton has climbed to 2nd place in both HITS and BLKS. While they are a distant 2nd in hits, they are closing the gap in blocks. Moncton’s offense combined with these strong peripherals makes them a force to be reckoned with.
- Gatineau is in last place for blocks. They should look to add more shot-blocking defensemen over the course of the next few weeks.
- Masham‘s peripheral stats have dropped since week 4. Adding Shea Weber won’t hurt.
- Thurso cannot throw the body. They’re dead last in that category by a long shot, and they didn’t address this in their rental moves.
GOALIES
Notes:
- Nepean is having one heck of a season between the pipes. His 2.19 goals against average and 92.8% save percentage both lead the league. However, with Freddy Andersen gone and Petr Mrazek in, we can expect these numbers to drop, unless Jordan Binnington keeps standing on his head like he’s done all season long.
- GM Manseau‘s first overall selection, Ben Bishop, had failed him immensely through the first four weeks. Since then, he’s been lights out. In the last month, Bishop has posted a .931 SV% and a 2.15 GAA. As a result, St-Hubert’s goalie stats have improved, but again, most of this is inconsequential seeing as St-Hubert
- Oh boy was Bob McKenzie ever wrong about Connor Hellebuyck. The Jets goalie was the best goalie in the NHL in November and has become an elite fantasy option in net. Unless Thurso’s Darcy Kuemper wins a Vezina, the Gutters have the best goaltending in the GHL.
- Speaking of Kuemper, he has been just ridiculously good. He is the #1 ranked goalie in the GHL and has literally stolen some weeks for Thurso this year. If he keeps playing this way, and that’s a big if, Thurso will be a legitimate threat going into the playoffs.
ELLIOTTE’S POWER RANKINGS
coming soon…
GHL GAZETTE 